Wix.com reports on November 10, eight days out from the November 2 morning scan, and on the measure that prices an event it is one of the most expensive names on this board. The scanner's November 2 row carries WIX at $76.75 with an implied volatility of 100.0, a three-day implied move of 53.2% and a five-day implied move of 88.6%. Rank the one hundred names by that five-day move and Wix is fifth, behind Maravai at 141.9%, VNET at 100.5%, JFrog at 95.7% and HubSpot at 89.5%.
The company behind that pricing is a $4.48 billion business covered by twenty-two analysts, carrying a score of 62 and a rank of 78. That is the Wix versus peers question in a single line: the options are pricing Wix like a large-cap event and the score is not. Neither number is wrong. The gap between them is the whole story.
The row, eight days out
Score 62, rank 78 of the one hundred names the scanner carries, sector Technology, print date November 10, earnings sentiment Mixed, short interest 18.2% of float, market capitalization $4.48 billion, implied volatility 100.0%, and a price of $76.75 at the time of the November 2 scan, 0.42% below the $77.07 close from Friday October 30.
Decomposed, the score of 62 is 22 points for coverage, 12.5 for a 50.0% buy-side share, 6 for the three strong buys, the full 15 for the implied move and 7 for a Mixed sentiment reading. Twenty-two analysts cover the name, and ten of their twenty-two ratings are holds.
That 15 points for the implied move is the part that misleads. The formula caps that column at 15, so a name priced for an 88.6% move and a name priced for a 16% move collect exactly the same 15 points. Wix and NVIDIA score identically on the single column that describes how violent its print is expected to be.
Wix is priced like a two-day name
Here is where the peer comparison turns up something. Of the twenty-four names in this board's AI software complex, six carry a five-day implied move wider than 70%. HubSpot is at 89.5% two days out. Wix is at 88.6% eight days out. AppLovin is at 88.0% two days out, Snap at 77.8% two days out, Atlassian at 77.6% three days out, and Cloudflare at 75.5% three days out.
Every one of them priced above Wix is three days from its print or closer. Wix is the widest-priced name in the complex that still has a week to run. Compare the other end of the same list: Palo Alto Networks prices 38.2% seventeen days out, CrowdStrike 39.8% twenty-nine days out, MongoDB 43.9% twenty-nine days out, and Adobe is not on this board at all.
The comparison holds if you widen it past software. Of the thirty-five names with eight or more days to their print, only six carry a five-day move of 60% or more: VNET at 100.5%, Wix at 88.6%, Globant at 73.0%, Okta at 65.9%, Keysight at 63.7% and GitLab at 60.8%. Most long-runway names price a quiet print. Wix prices the loudest one on the board outside a single $940 million name.
The closest peer comparison is BILL, and it does not line up
Bill Holdings is the nearest thing to a match on this board, and the comparison is instructive because it fails. BILL is $4.15 billion, Wix is $4.48 billion. BILL carries 17.3% of float short, Wix 18.2%. Both are covered by twenty-two analysts, and their implied volatilities are 97.8 and 100.0, the same number for practical purposes.
And yet BILL prices a five-day move of 40.9% and Wix prices 88.6%, more than twice as much, out of a book that is barely different. BILL has three strong buys, ten buys and nine holds with no sell rating, a 59.1% buy-side share and a Positive sentiment reading, which is worth 15 points on the score. Wix has three strong buys, eight buys, ten holds and one sell, a 50.0% buy-side share and a Mixed reading, worth 7. That is why BILL scores 73 and Wix scores 62 on nearly identical company profiles.
The comparison that matters most is on the same calendar. Only two names in the live scanner universe report on November 10: Wix and Sea Limited. Sea carries 92.6% buy-side, twenty-seven analysts, no sell ratings, only 2.5% of float short and a Negative sentiment reading, and the market prices its print at a 34.1% five-day move. Wix, with the weaker book and the larger short interest, is priced at 88.6%. Same date, a spread of nearly two and a half times.
The dollars are not the same either
A percentage move means different things at different sizes, and this is where a five-day move of 88.6% stops being impressive. On Wix's $4.48 billion market capitalization, an 88.6% move is about $3.97 billion of value. HubSpot's 89.5% on $11.73 billion is about $10.50 billion, AppLovin's 88.0% on $77.92 billion about $68.57 billion, and Datadog's 75.4% on $83.84 billion about $63.22 billion.
Wix is the thirteenth smallest market capitalization on the board, priced with the same percentage as names ten to twenty times its size. The straddle makes the same point in another unit: about $13.60 against the $76.75 price, 17.7% of the share price, with the three-times target at $117.55 and the five-times at $144.75. Reaching $144.75 puts Wix $68.00 above its current price.
The analyst side says something different. The consensus objective is $90.35, 17.7% above the $76.75 scan price, a wider gap than the 8.2% Bill's $52.28 target offers. The street has $13.60 of upside marked against the options' $68.00, and that difference is what a November 10 print has to settle.
What the tape has been doing while the options wait
The price has not been confirming the volatility. Wix closed October 30 at $77.07, down 1.27% on a session when software was hit hard: Datadog fell 11.50%, AppLovin 10.36%, Atlassian 6.07% and Nutanix 4.95%. On the same afternoon Fiserv rose 3.18%, Intuit 2.99%, Paycom 1.49% and Globant 6.96%. Wix was down less than a percent and a half while the software complex fell several times that.
The window tells the same story in both directions. Measured from the October 23 close of $81.94, the week is down 5.94%. Measured from the October 2 close of $72.62, the one-month window is up 6.13%. The stock peaked at $82.55 on October 22 and has given back 6.65% of that since, closing the window at $77.07. At $76.75 the price sits 7.03% below its one-month high and 6.98% above its one-month low of $71.74 from October 13.
So the picture is a stock drifting in the middle of a range while the options mark one of the five most violent events on the board. What is unusual about Wix is that the short book is doing real work in the price: 18.2% of float is the eighth highest on this board, far above Palo Alto Networks at 2.6%, CrowdStrike at 2.4%, Cloudflare at 2.8% and NVIDIA at 1.3%. When a crowded float and a violent pricing meet, the order of the two events decides who is right.
What to watch into November 10
- The $77.07 October 30 close and the $71.74 October 13 low, because a stock priced for an 88.6% move that breaks its own range first is telling you which event comes first.
- Bill Holdings at a 40.9% five-day move on the same crowding and the same coverage, because the gap between 40.9% and 88.6% is the cleanest read on what Wix is being priced for.
- Sea Limited on November 10 at a 34.1% move with a 92.6% buy-side book and a Negative sentiment reading, because two names on one date with two completely different pricings is the comparison the calendar gives you for free.
- The $90.35 analyst target, because at 17.7% above the price it is the number that would have to move to justify an $88.6% pricing before the print rather than after it.
- The 18.2% short interest, because it is the one crowded thing on this row and it is the mechanism a violent pricing would most likely run through.
The Wix versus peers answer is that Wix does not price like its peers. It prices like a two-day name with a mega-cap's percentage move on a $4.48 billion balance sheet, and its analyst book is the reason the score has it at 78 while the options have it at 5. That disagreement, not the score, is the tradeable fact on the row. Whether the 88.6% is right is settled on November 10, and until then the only question worth tracking is whether the short book forces the answer early.
