Globant closed October 30 at $46.72, up 6.96% from the $43.68 close on October 29, and that close is the one-month high in the price tracker. It was the second largest gain of the ninety-two names the tracker covers, on a session when two thirds of the board fell. Seventeen days before its November 19 print, the first question on a move like this is the one that matters: was this Globant, or was this something else entirely?
The scanner carries GLOB at a score of 64, rank 71 of one hundred, with 17 days to earnings, an implied volatility reading of 82.4 and a $2.01 billion market capitalization. It does not carry a company event, because there was not one to carry. The honest read is narrower and more interesting than a single-name story: Globant moved with exactly one other name on this board, and that pair has led the month as well as the session.
The close: $46.72, up 6.96%, at the one-month high
Globant ended October 30 at $46.72, up $3.04 on the session. The one-month window that ends on that close starts on October 2, when the stock closed at $35.10, so the move across the window is 33.11%. The week, measured from the October 23 close of $45.03, is up 3.75%.
That weekly number understates the session. Almost all of the month's gain came in the second half of October, and the pace was steady rather than sudden: $37.17 on October 13, $39.23 on October 15, $41.65 on October 20, $43.20 on October 21, $45.78 on October 22, then a pullback to $42.97 on October 27 before the final push to $46.72. At $46.60 in the November 2 morning scan, 0.21% below the close, the stock is 0.26% under its one-month high and 32.76% above its October 2 low.
It moved with one other name, and that name led the month too
On October 30 sixty-eight of the ninety-two tracked names closed lower and twenty-four rose, with a median decline of 2.17% across the whole set. Globant was the second largest gainer of the twenty-four. Global Payments was first at 12.97%, and EPAM was third at 4.31%.
Then the window itself becomes the answer. Globant's 33.11% is the largest move of any of the ninety-two names over the one-month window, and EPAM's 29.75% is the second. The two names that led the session are the two names that led the month, and they led it by a wide margin: the third name on the window is Global Payments at 23.55%, then Leidos at 21.44% and Intuit at 21.35%.
What the AI software complex did that day matters as much as what Globant did. Datadog fell 11.50%, AppLovin 10.36%, Atlassian 6.07%, Nutanix 4.95% and Zoom 2.21%. This was not a rally in the software and semiconductor complex that Globant belongs to. It was a rally in a corner of the board that the rest of the board was not in.
Globant has not reported, so its own earnings cannot be the cause
Globant reports on November 19, seventeen days after the close that produced this move. The company has not reported anything in the window this rally covers, so the print cannot be the explanation for a move that happened entirely before it.
That leaves two possibilities and the board cannot separate them. Either something company-specific reached Globant and EPAM together, or the two names are being bought as one exposure and something reached both of them. The scanner's own sentiment reading for Globant's print is Mixed, and the row it holds for Globant carries no dated company news beyond a routine quote page, so this article is not going to name a cause the data does not support. What the data does support is the shape of the move: one session, one partner, one month, both heavily short.
The short book is what changed
Short interest on Globant is 20.3% of float, the seventh highest of the one hundred names on this board, against a median of 4.25%. Only twelve names carry 15% or more. Sunrun sits at 35.6%, Upstart at 31.6%, VNET at 30.1% and Fox at 28.6%, then Lyft at 21.7%, SolarEdge at 20.7% and Globant at 20.3%. WIX is next at 18.2%, EPAM at 17.6% and BILL at 17.3%.
Read that list again and the pair shows up inside it. The two names that led the session and led the month are also the two most heavily short names in the board's services group, and Globant at 20.3% and EPAM at 17.6% have both spent October being wrong. A short book that has been wrong for a month and a half is a book with a reason to cover, and covering is buying.
Market capitalization is $2.01 billion, the seventh smallest of the one hundred names, behind Clean Energy Fuels at $0.33 billion, iQIYI at $0.79 billion, VNET at $0.94 billion, Innodata at $1.49 billion, Sunrun at $1.88 billion and SolarEdge at $1.88 billion. The two names on this board with the most to gain from a covering trade are small enough that a fraction of the flow moves them.
What the options are charging now
After the rally, the options have not stood down. Globant implied volatility reads 82.4, which prices a three-day move of 43.8% and a five-day move of 73.0%. That five-day figure is the seventeenth widest on the board, and twenty names carry a five-day move of 70% or more.
The at-the-money straddle costs about $6.80 against the $46.60 scan price, 14.6% of the share price. The scanner carries the three-times-straddle target at $67.00 and the five-times at $80.60. The analyst consensus objective is $53.40, which is 14.6% above the price. So the street has $6.80 of upside marked and the options have $33.40 of it, and on a name that has just risen 33.11% in a window, that is the gap a reader has to decide about before November 19.
The book is thin, and half of it is sitting still
Twenty-three analysts cover Globant. Four rate it a strong buy, six rate it a buy, thirteen hold it and not one rates it a sell. Ten of twenty-three ratings sit on the buy side, which is 43.5%, and the thirteen holds are 56.5% of the book.
Decomposed, the score of 64 is 23 points for coverage, 10.87 for the 43.5% buy-side share, 8 for the four strong buys, the full 15 for the implied move and 7 for a Mixed sentiment reading. Coverage is the only column that is close to full marks, and it is the column that says least. Fifty-one of the one hundred names carry no sell rating at all, and Globant is one of them, but it gets there with thirteen holds rather than with conviction.
What to watch into November 19
- EPAM, because it is the only other name on this board that moved with Globant on October 30 and it led the month alongside it at 29.75%.
- The $46.72 close, because it is the one-month high and the level the tape has to hold for a 33.11% window to read as a trend rather than a bounce.
- The 20.3% short interest, because it is the seventh highest on the board and a covering story is the most plausible mechanism this data supports.
- The $53.40 target against the $80.60 five-times-straddle target, because that $27.20 gap is what seventeen days of analyst revisions would have to close.
- The $43.68 October 29 close, because that is where the stock sat before the session that started this, and it is the line that turns a rally into a gap.
Globant is up 6.96% on October 30 and 33.11% across the one-month window, it has not reported, and the cause is not confirmed as anything the company did. It moved with one other board name, that same pairing led the month, and both of them sit near the top of the short-interest list. The options still charge 82.4 implied volatility and a 73.0% five-day move for a print that is seventeen days away. Whether that is a squeeze continuing or a pre-print setup is the question the next four sessions answer.
