Analog Devices reports on November 24, twenty-two days out from the November 2 morning scan, and the case for it is not a chart pattern. It is a quiet options market on a name almost nobody is short. The scanner's November 2 row carries ADI at $421.93, 1.16% above the October 30 close of $417.11, with implied volatility of 45.4 and a five-day implied move of 36.7%. Thirty-four analysts cover it, six of them at strong buy, twenty-four at buy, and not one at sell.
The 81 that comes with those numbers is made of something more specific than a high score. Decomposed, it is 25 points for coverage, 22.1 for an 88.2% buy-side share, 12 for the six strong buys, the full 15 for the implied move and 7 for a Mixed earnings sentiment reading. Fifty-nine of the 81 points describe the analyst book. The volatility column, the one that says how much the market actually expects to move, is worth 15 points whether Analog Devices is quiet or loud, because the formula caps it there.
The row, twenty-two days out
Score 81, rank 25 of the one hundred names the scanner carries, sector Technology, print date November 24, earnings sentiment Mixed, short interest 2.3% of float, market capitalization $204.45 billion, implied volatility 45.4%, and a price of $421.93 at the time of the November 2 scan, 1.16% above the $417.11 close it printed on Friday October 30.
That market capitalization is the twelfth largest on the board, a hair below Shopify at $205.03 billion and Arista Networks at $211.41 billion, and nowhere near the $5,018.23 billion NVIDIA carries. The short book is the quietest part of the row. Twenty-one of the one hundred names carry a smaller short interest than Analog Devices, the median across the board is 4.25%, and on the crowded end of the list Sunrun sits at 35.6%, Upstart at 31.6% and VNET at 30.1%. This is not a name anyone is pressing.
Twenty-two days is long for this board
Runway is the part of a setup the score does not measure, and Analog Devices has more of it than most. Fifteen of the one hundred names carry twenty-two days or more to their print. Seven of them sit at the full twenty-nine days the calendar allows: Okta at a score of 92, MongoDB at 91, Marvell at 88, CrowdStrike at 86, Workday at 76, GitLab at 65 and NetApp at 63. Autodesk is at twenty-five, Veeva, Deere and Nutanix at twenty-three, and then Zoom Security, Dell, Analog Devices and HPQ at twenty-two.
Only four names report on November 24, and Analog Devices is the third of them by score: Zoom Security at 88, Dell at 81, Analog Devices at 81 and HPQ at 51. Dell is the comparison that matters, because it prints the same day with the same score and an implied volatility of 84.3 against Analog's 45.4. Two names, one date, one score, and two very different prices for the same event.
October 30 was a bad day for the complex, and ADI fell with it
On Friday October 30 the tape was ugly for anything carrying a semiconductor or a software label. Sixty-eight of the ninety-two names the price tracker covers closed lower, with a median decline of 2.17%. Datadog fell 11.50%, Qualcomm 11.12%, AMD 10.88%, Dell 10.77%, AppLovin 10.36%, Lattice Semiconductor 9.74% and HPQ 9.58%. Analog Devices fell 3.73%, from $433.28 to $417.11.
That is the correct read of the move, and it is worth being plain about it. Analog Devices did not fall on anything of its own. The company has not reported, its print is on November 24, and the names closest to it on that tape fell further: Dell at 10.77%, Lattice at 9.74%, HPQ at 9.58%, Diodes at 8.76% and Innodata at 5.11%. What is interesting about the 3.73% decline is that it happened on a down day for the whole complex, not that it was large.
The month tells the fuller story. ADI closed October 2 at $417.15 and October 30 at $417.11, a 0.01% move across the entire month, but the path between them was a round trip. It fell to $385.76 on October 22, recovered through $425.35 on October 27 and $433.28 on October 29, then handed most of it back on the final session. At $421.93 the stock is 2.62% below its October 29 high and 9.38% above its October 22 low.
The options are not charging for this one
Here is the clearest signal in the setup. Analog Devices implied volatility reads 45.4, and that prices a three-day move of 22.0% and a five-day move of 36.7%. The at-the-money straddle costs about $30.95 against the $421.93 price, 7.3% of the share price, and the scanner carries the three-times-straddle target at $514.78 and the five-times at $576.68.
Sort the twenty-nine names scoring 80 or more by implied volatility and Analog Devices is the fourth cheapest, behind Disney at 42.4, JD.com at 43.0 and Deere at 44.8. On the five-day move it is the eleventh cheapest of the same group. The board median implied volatility is 76.8.
Some of that gap is the calendar, because distance pulls implied volatility down on every name. But the comparison holds on its own terms. AppLovin scores 81 and prices an 88.0% five-day move two days out. CrowdStrike scores 86 and prices 39.8% twenty-nine days out. Analog Devices scores 81 and prices 36.7% twenty-two days out. The options market is telling you that a November 24 print is not expected to be dramatic, which is a completely different proposition from a November 4 print.
A clean book and a target with nowhere to go
Thirty-four analysts cover Analog Devices. Six rate it a strong buy, twenty-four rate it a buy, four hold it and not one sells it. That 88.2% buy-side share is the ninth of the twenty-nine names scoring 80 or more, and the four holds out of thirty-four ratings are a genuinely thin band of neutrality for a name of this size.
Fifty-one of the one hundred names carry no sell rating at all, so the zero is not unique. What makes ADI's version of it interesting is the pairing with a Mixed sentiment reading. The street is overwhelmingly positive on the stock, while the company's own recent surprise history reads Mixed, which earns 7 points in the score instead of the full 15 a Positive reading would take.
The target is what complicates the picture. At $452.88 the consensus objective sits 7.3% above the $421.93 scan price. Against that, the options are pricing a five-times-straddle target of $576.68, which is 36.7% above the same price. The street is not underwriting the move the options are pricing, and on a name that has gone nowhere across the month, that gap is the thing to resolve before November 24 rather than after it.
What to watch into November 24
- The $433.28 October 29 high, because the stock is 2.62% below it and a new high on unchanged news is the cheapest kind of momentum to carry into a print.
- The $30.95 straddle and the $576.68 five-times-straddle target, because 45.4 implied volatility on a name with this coverage is the part of this setup the score cannot see.
- The 2.3% short interest, because there is no crowded book to squeeze and no fuel for a violent move in either direction before the print.
- Okta, MongoDB, Marvell, CrowdStrike, Workday, GitLab and NetApp at twenty-nine days, because they hold more runway than Analog Devices and they set the tone for what a late-quarter print is worth.
- Dell on the same November 24 date, at an implied volatility of 84.3 against Analog's 45.4, because two names with the same score and the same print date should not price the same risk, and if they do, one of them is wrong.
The edge on Analog Devices is not a hidden number. It is twenty-two days of runway, an 81 on the scanner row, thirty-four analysts with nothing negative in the book, and an implied volatility of 45.4 that makes the November 24 print the quietest thing on the board among the names scoring 80 or more. The counterweight is a target only 7.3% above the price and a Mixed reading on the company's own recent surprises. Quiet, well covered and well debated. What it is not is crowded, and on a board where most of October's movement came from crowded books, that is the reason to keep it on a list.
