ZS reports on November 24, twenty-four days out from the October 31 morning scan, and it carries the highest score of any name on this board with more than three weeks left to run. The scanner row reads 88. DDOG sits at 98 and PANW at 94, but DDOG prints on November 4 and PANW on November 19, and every one of the eight names that outscore ZS shares that same problem. ADSK manages 87 with twenty-seven days to spare. ZS is the name the calendar has not already forced you to trade.
That distinction matters more than the headline score, because a score is a snapshot and a runway is a variable you control. Twenty-four days is long enough for the market to change its mind several times before the print, and long enough for fresh information to land in between. It is also long enough that the options market marks a smaller reaction than it does for the names reporting next week.
Score 88 with more than three weeks left to run
ZS closed at $237.83 on October 30, down 4.03% on the session. The stock is still 19.26% higher than its September 30 close of $199.42, and it sits 8.67% below the $260.45 it touched on October 26. That October 26 high is the number worth holding on to, because it is the most recent price the market was willing to pay for this story and it was four sessions ago.
The market capitalization on the row is $38.78 billion against a $237.83 share price. The analyst target the scanner records is $254.83, which is 7.1% above the close. That is the second-smallest gap to target in this article's peer group, behind only ADSK at 5.5%, and it deserves a moment's attention. After a month that added 19.26%, the street's own price objective leaves 7.1% on the table. The stock is not cheap, and the book does not pretend that it is.
Short interest is 5.6% of float and the scanner's earnings sentiment reading for the November 24 print is Positive. Those two numbers frame the position differently than the score does. There is a crowd in this name but not a violent one, and the sentiment measured ahead of the print already points the right way.
October 30 was a software selloff, not a ZS event
Here is the part worth being careful about, because the honest answer to why a stock fell is usually less interesting than the one a headline offers. ZS did not report anything on October 30. It does not report until November 24. No earnings event can explain a move that happens three and a half weeks before the print.
What happened on October 30 was the software complex selling off together. Sixty-eight of the ninety-two names the price tracker covers closed lower that day, with a median decline of 2.17%. PANW fell 3.86%, NTNX fell 4.95%, ZS fell 4.03%, NET fell 9.54% and TEAM fell 6.07%. ZS landed in the middle of that range, closer to PANW than to NET.
That is the signature of a sector move rather than a company event, and it is why the pullback from the October 26 high reads as noise rather than information. When a name with no print of its own falls less than the median of the group, the group is the story.
- ZS closed at $237.83 on October 30, down 4.03% on the day and 6.79% over the week.
- The stock is 19.26% above its September 30 close of $199.42 and 8.67% below the October 26 high of $260.45.
- Scanner score 88, 47 analysts, 7 strong buys, 29 buys, 11 holds and zero sell ratings.
- Implied volatility 78.4, a three-day implied move of 21.4% and a five-day implied move of 35.7%.
- Short interest 5.6% of float, analyst target $254.83, market cap $38.78 billion.
The analyst book has no sellers in it
Forty-seven analysts cover ZS. Seven of them rate it a strong buy, twenty-nine rate it a buy, eleven hold it, and not one rates it a sell. That zero is rare in this peer group. PANW has fifty-five analysts and two sell ratings. NET has thirty-four analysts and two sell ratings. TEAM is the other clean book, with thirty-three analysts, six strong buys and no sellers.
A sell rating is the sharpest piece of information in an analyst book, because it is the one that costs a holding money the day it appears. The book on ZS has no such line in it, and it has more names behind it than any company in this group except PANW.
The composition of that book matters as much as the count. Eleven holds out of forty-seven ratings means the street is not split so much as concentrated. Twenty-nine buys plus seven strong buys puts roughly three quarters of the book on the buy side, and nobody has gone the other way.
What the options are pricing, and what the calendar adds
This is the part of the setup the score cannot show you. What the scanner records as a three-day move is the cost of the at-the-money straddle around the print, and the five-day figure is that same cost scaled to a longer horizon. That number is driven mostly by implied volatility, and implied volatility is where the distance to the print starts to show up.
ZS implied volatility reads 78.4. That prices a three-day move of 21.4% and a five-day move of 35.7%. Compare NET, which reports on November 5: implied volatility of 148.1, a three-day move of 45.4% and a five-day move of 75.7%. TEAM, also reporting November 5, sits at 150.2 implied volatility and a 76.8% five-day move. PANW, printing November 19, is at 72.5 and 36.8%.
The gap between 35.7% and 76.8% is not one thing, and it is worth being precise about which part is which. Implied volatility and the straddle-derived move are 0.77 correlated across the board, so the market's own read on how violently each print resolves is the dominant driver. NET and TEAM, at roughly 150 against ZS's 78.4, are marked for a rough ride and ZS is not. The calendar pulls the other way. The nine names on this board with more than twenty-one days to their print carry a median implied volatility of 49.1, against 78.5 for the forty-five names four to seven days out, so the window does discount the number. It is the smaller of the two forces, and the honest read is that ZS sits on the calm side of both.
NTNX is the closest read on the same part of the calendar, reporting November 25, and it carries a 42.4% five-day move at 45.4 implied volatility. ZS carries 35.7%. On nearly the same date the modeled move is smaller for ZS, and both sit far below what the November 5 cohort carries.
What to watch before November 24
The first checkpoint is the October 26 high of $260.45. A stock that recovers it has simply taken back a four-session move the sector took away, and that removes the pullback from the story entirely. A stock that keeps making lower highs into a print with an 88 on the row is telling you something the score does not.
The second is the analyst target of $254.83, which sits 7.1% above the close and just under the October 26 high. If the street starts raising targets rather than simply holding them, the gap between price and target begins to close, and it closes faster than a score changes.
The third is short interest at 5.6%. A name with a clean book, positive sentiment and a crowded but not violently crowded short position is a setup where pressure tends to release on good news rather than build ahead of it. That is a reason to hold a position through the window, not a reason to size up in front of it.
The edge on ZS is not a hidden number. It is that the calendar has left it alone and the volatility reading is moderate. Twenty-four days, an 88, forty-seven analysts with no sellers, and implied volatility of 78.4 against roughly 150 for the names printing next week, which is what puts the modeled move at roughly half of theirs. The October 30 decline does not change any of that, because on October 30 the software complex moved and ZS moved with it.
Watch the $260.45 high. Watch the $254.83 target. Keep November 24 in plain sight. That is the setup.
