Robinhood Markets reported third-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, and the print lands in an unusual place: the top line was the largest quarter the company has ever booked while the per-share number was the weakest in four. Total net revenue reached $1.42 billion, up 12% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA set a record $808 million, up 9%. Diluted EPS came in at $0.51, down 16%, and monthly active users fell by 800,000 to 13.0 million. The HOOD earnings date is settled now, and the stock closed at $94.56 on October 27, up 1.85% on the day.

That close is the part worth being precise about. The release crossed at 4:05 p.m. ET, after the market had shut, so the October 27 session priced positioning into an event rather than the event itself. The reaction belongs to the October 28 session, and as of the October 28 morning scan Robinhood no longer has a live row in the scanner at all: a name that has reported drops out of the forward calendar, which is the honest signal that the setup window has closed.

What the scanner had priced going in

The row Robinhood carried into the print was the strongest on the board that morning. It scored 87 and ranked 19th of the 100 names the scanner tracks. Thirty-two analysts covered it, split 6 at strong buy, 20 at buy, 4 at hold and 2 at sell, so 26 of 32 were on the buy side. Implied volatility was 129.7%. Short interest was 5.1% of float. Market capitalization was $85.54 billion and earnings sentiment was marked Positive. The scanner's three-day post-earnings target for the name was $104.06, which is 9.4% above its $95.14 price.

Those targets are built from one number: the cost of the at-the-money earnings straddle, what the market charges to own the event. For Robinhood that straddle cost $8.92 against a $95.14 price. Multiply it once and you get the three-day target of $104.06. Three times gives the seven-day target of $121.91, 28.1% above the price. Five times gives the fourteen-day target of $139.76, 46.9% above it. One straddle, three exit horizons.

The peer group is where Robinhood's row separates. Coinbase (COIN) had 38 analysts with 19 at buy, 13 at hold and 2 at sell, implied volatility of 142.3% and short interest of 10.8% of float, and it reads Negative on earnings sentiment. SoFi Technologies (SOFI) had 26 analysts with only 11 on the buy side, implied volatility of 157.6% and short interest of 16.9%, and it reported on October 27 as well. Fiserv (FIS) carried 30 analysts, 14 on the buy side, implied volatility of 64.5% and short interest of 4.3%. Robinhood's book was the most one-sided of the four and its short interest was near the bottom, so the print was priced for a surprise, not a squeeze.

The revenue line was the record

Transaction-based revenues rose 19% year over year to $867 million, and the composition is where the quarter was actually made. Event contracts produced $173 million, more than six times the year-ago figure. Options revenue was $399 million, up 31%. Equities revenue was $121 million, up 41%. Cryptocurrency revenue was $120 million, down 55%.

Net interest revenues fell 9% to $415 million, which the company attributed to lower securities lending activity and lower short-term interest rates. Other revenues rose 61% to $142 million on Trump Account service revenue and Gold subscriptions. On the customer side, funded customers reached 28.7 million, up 7%, total platform assets grew 19% to $396 billion, and Gold subscribers hit a record 5.2 million, up 34%. Average revenue per user was $200, up 5%. Net deposits were $15.7 billion in the quarter and $71.0 billion over the trailing twelve months, up 21%.

That deposit base matters most for a broker whose net interest revenue is shrinking, because it funds everything else the company does and sits on the asset side of the interest business.

Why earnings per share fell while revenue rose

Net income was $476 million, down 14%, and diluted EPS was $0.51, down 16%. The gap between a 12% revenue increase and a 16% EPS decline has two parts. The first is a $67 million mark-to-market loss, equal to $0.07 of diluted EPS, on the Robinhood Ventures Fund I stake. Adjusted EPS was $0.60, down 3% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of $808 million was up 9% with a 57% margin.

The second part is operating expense, which grew 16% to $739 million, with provisions for credit losses on a growing credit card loan book, expenses tied to Trump Accounts and Rothera, and marketing and growth investment. So the quarter is neither a margin story nor a collapse: it is a 12% top line with a 3% decline in the cleaner earnings measure.

What management guided into the next quarter

The guidance is the most interesting part of the print, the first look at the fourth quarter. Management said it would lower the top end of its prior full-year outlook by $25 million and now expects full-year adjusted operating expenses including stock-based compensation of $2.675 billion to $2.75 billion, a midpoint $13 million lower than the prior range.

On volumes, average daily volumes for equities, options and cryptocurrencies started the quarter about 5% lighter than the strong Q3, while event contract volumes were running about 10% higher. October net deposits topped $13 billion, including a $6 billion contribution to Trump Accounts from the Dell family. Cash and equivalents stood at $5.8 billion against $4.3 billion a year earlier, and the company bought back $25 million of stock at an average price of about $105.

Where the tape sat going in

The eight closes into the print show a stock that had already given up a lot. From $98.87 on October 16 it fell to $96.52, rose to $98.21, climbed to $101.93 on October 21, then dropped through $96.58 on October 22 and $95.07 on October 23 to a $92.84 close on October 26. That $92.84 was the low of the month, down 18.8% from the $116.46 close on September 28. The October 27 close of $94.56 was a 1.85% bounce off that low, into the print, and still below the roughly $105 average the company repurchased stock at in the quarter.

What to do with the name now

The immediate question is not whether Robinhood was a good setup, because that trade is finished and the window closed on October 27. The question is what the print changed for the names still ahead. Coinbase prints on October 29 with a Negative sentiment reading, 13 analysts at hold and implied volatility of 142.3%. Fiserv prints on November 4 with 15 analysts at hold and a Mixed reading. Robinhood was the most one-sided name in the group going into its event, which means the group is less one-sided now that it has reported.

The second question is the guide. A 5% lighter start to fourth-quarter volumes against a 12% revenue base, a $25 million cut to the top of the operating expense range and $13 billion of October net deposits is a mixed picture: activity cooling, spending disciplined, deposits arriving. Revenue per user of $200 with 5.2 million Gold subscribers gives the subscription side something to lean on while crypto revenue is down 55%, and event contracts are the line that offset it.

The third is what to do with a stock that is off the forward calendar. With no live scanner row there is no options-implied range, no implied volatility and no sentiment reading to lean on. The honest answer is to price it off the fundamentals and the guidance until it returns to the scanner, and to track the deposit number, the event contract volume trend and the crypto revenue line, because those decide whether a 12% revenue quarter with 3% lower adjusted earnings is a base or a peak.