PROVEN WIN
Atlassian (TEAM) +22% in 4 Days
Bought TEAM pre-earnings at $215, scored 88/100. Q2 revenue $1.4B (+22% YoY) with Rovo AI adoption crushing estimates. Stock ripped to $262 — +22%.
SaaS
Top Scanner Pick
Earnings Beat
Feb 2025
The Setup Before Earnings
Atlassian (TEAM) was flagged by the AI Market Cap scanner as a top momentum pick ahead of the print. The picture was clear:
- Revenue trend: Q1 2025 posted 19% growth — reaccelerating after the 2023 reset
- AI narrative positioning: Rovo AI agents launched to all customers — clear AI monetization path
- Analyst upgrades: Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley both raised price targets on Rovo traction
- Short interest: ~1.5% short float — low short, but high beta name (1.5 Beta)
- Implied volatility: Straddle pricing ~8% expected move — options market under-pricing the AI tailwind
Pre-earnings, the stock was consolidating at $215 — a level where options market pricing reflected an aggressive expected move, but Wall Street was still under-pricing the AI tailwind. That setup made for a clean entry window.
The Earnings Report
TEAM reported the quarter with the following key numbers:
- Revenue: $1.4B (+22% YoY) — beat $1.38B consensus by $20M
- Adjusted EPS: $1.10 vs $1.05 expected — 5% beat
- Operating margin: 21% non-GAAP — expanding 300bps YoY
- Cloud customers: 361 customers >$1M ARR — adding 30 net new $1M customers per quarter
- Rovo adoption: >2 million users activated Rovo AI in first 60 days — fastest product adoption in company history
"Rovo is the fastest-adopted product in Atlassian history. Every customer who has Rovo is consolidating more seats into our platform."
The Result
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Entry (pre-earnings) | $215 |
| Post-earnings high | $262 |
| Gain captured | +22% |
| Time in trade | 4 days |
Why This Type of Move Happens
SaaS stocks like TEAM are uniquely positioned for violent moves because:
- Binary narrative shift: When a SaaS company posts 22% growth AND reports the fastest product adoption in its history, the multiple expands
- AI agent monetization: Rovo agents are sticky — every AI seat increases ARR per customer and reduces churn
- Cloud migration: Cloud customers crossed 50% of revenue — eliminates the perpetual license transition overhang
- Guidance beat: Q3 guidance of $1.42B-$1.44B beat $1.40B expected by ~$30M — confirms the AI + Cloud thesis
How to Find the Next One
The same indicators that scored TEAM 88/100 are running on the scanner every morning. Stocks with:
- Score 86+ (our Strong Buy threshold)
- High implied volatility before earnings
- Elevated short interest for squeeze potential
- AI-adjacent narrative Wall Street is actively re-rating
Our AI pre-earnings scanner filters AI stocks across these dimensions daily. See what's scoring highest this week.
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